The growing burden of type 2 diabetes is strongly influenced by excess body weight, abdominal adiposity, and early metabolic dysfunction. Obesity can place continuous pressure on insulin activity, leading to reduced glucose control and gradual movement toward prediabetes and diabetes. Current literature identifies body mass index, waist circumference, fasting glucose, and HOMA-IR as important markers in obesity-related diabetes risk. However, these markers are often discussed separately, which limits their use in population-level prevention and early risk classification. This study is needed to explain how obesity-related body changes and insulin resistance combine to shape diabetes progression. The article develops a public health risk pathway using anthropometric, metabolic, and lifestyle indicators. The results show that progression risk rises as obesity severity, central fat burden, fasting glucose, and HOMA-IR increase together. The study concludes that diabetes prevention should begin with integrated risk mapping before clinical diagnosis. This approach can support community screening, lifestyle programs, metabolic follow-up, and early intervention planning.